文章内容

（1.中国石油集团经济技术研究院，北京 100724；2.中国石油学会，北京 100724）

摘要：2022年中美博弈持续加剧，亚太地区地缘政治风险上升，预计短期内该风险趋势难以改变。乌克兰危机叠加新型冠状病毒感染疫情，亚太经济增速放缓，未来经济有望恢复。国际石油公司继续出让东南亚地区油气资产，随着能源转型的推进，预计国际石油公司会持续剥离该地区非核心油气资产。亚太地区脱碳目标与现实脱节，能源转型需要地区各国政府采取积极行动，包括解决可再生能源发电并网问题，推广应用碳捕集、利用与封存等新技术，以尽快完成碳减排目标。

关键词：亚太地区；油气行业；投资环境；能源转型

中图分类号：F4                        文献标识码：A

Status and prospect of oil and gas investment environment in Asia-Pacific region in 2022

YU Gongming1, YANG Xinyu2, WANG Yijun1, REN Zhongyuan1

(1. CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, Beijing 100724, China;2. Chinese Petroleum Society, Beijing 100724, China)

Abstract: The intensifying competition between China and the US continues, the geopolitical risk in the Asia-Pacific region is rising, and it is anticipated that this risk trend will be difficult to change in the short term. The Ukraine crisis and COVID-19 pandemic have further slowed down the global economic growth, but there is hope for economic recovery in the Asia-Pacific region in the future. International oil companies are currently divesting their oil and gas assets in Southeast Asia, and with the progress of the energy transition, it is expected that they will continue to divest their non-core oil and gas assets in the region. The decarbonization goals in the Asia-Pacific region are disconnected from reality, and the energy transition requires governments of various countries in the region to take positive actions, addressing the issue of renewable energy grid connection, promoting new technologies such as carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), in order to achieve carbon emissions reduction targets as soon as possible.

Keywords: Asia-Pacific region; oil and gas industry; investment environment; energy transition

2022年，亚太地区多国举行大选，选举结果有多个务实和理性的新政府上台。乌克兰危机叠加新型冠状病毒感染疫情（以下简称新冠病毒疫情），亚洲经济增速放缓。亚太地区地缘政治风险上升，部分国家安全形势依然严峻，其中缅甸、巴基斯坦等国的安全风险较高。地区部分资源国的资源民族主义抬头，国际石油公司海外投资风险上升。本文重点分析2022年亚太地区的宏观投资环境、油气行业发展状况、国际石油公司投资动向，以及亚太地区能源转型面临的挑战，并总结该地区未来油气行业投资环境发展趋势。1 亚太地区投资环境状况1.1 政治安全形势及展望

2022年亚太地区中澳大利亚、韩国、菲律宾和斯里兰卡等国均举行了大选。澳大利亚和菲律宾新政府对与中国的关系持务实和理性态度，并希望加强对中国合作。澳大利亚新一届政府执政后，中澳两国领导人在G20峰会上举行会晤，澳大利亚政府展现出改善和发展两国关系的意愿，该国商界人士对中澳贸易合作表达了乐观的态度，中澳关系有望进入一个坦诚对话、解决分歧、互利合作的新阶段。